Iranian Chemical Engineering Journal

Iranian Chemical Engineering Journal

Modeling of the Propagation of Coronavirus by Using Markov Chains Method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
M. Rahimdel 1
M. M. Kamyabi 2
H. Eghbali 3
M. J. Rahimdel 4
1 M. Sc. Student of Chemical Engineering, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan
2 Assistant Professor of Chemical Engineering, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan
3 Assistant Professor of Chemical Engineering, Vali-e-Asr University of RafsanjanIran
4 Assistant Professor of Mining Engineering, University of Birjand
10.22034/ijche.2023.375344.1260
Abstract
In recent years, Covid-19 disease, as a contagious disease with high spreading power, has had very destructive effects on human societies. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate how it is spread and transmitted. The aim of the current research is to estimate the probability of transmission of the coronavirus and to predict its spread using the random method of Markov chains. For this purpose, the spread of the coronavirus in France, England, Germany, Iran and Nigeria has been modeled. According to the results, the highest probability of transmission of this virus is related to France, which has decreased rapidly over time. In addition, the cases predicted in 2021 for England, Germany and Iran are 1.2%, 1.8% and 0.7% different from the reported values, respectively. These results show the effectiveness of the proposed model in predicting the number of people infected with the coronavirus.
Keywords
Epidemiology
Covid-19
Probability of Transmission
Markov Chain
Subjects
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Iranian Chemical Engineering Journal
Volume 22, Issue 131 - Serial Number 131
March and April 2024
Pages 65-77